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some nonsenses tech. events December 18, 2006

Posted by TSAI HONG-BIN in Misc.
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  1. Google bought YouTube for 1.6 billion USD
  2. Yahoo Taiwan bought Wretch (無名小站) for 0.7 billion NTD
  3. Some “analyst” “predicted” that Micro$oft won’t evolve new version of Windows after Vista

Before making any comment on these 3 tech. news, I have to say something in advance: I believe my sense about information technology. Here are few evidences. I had predicted the vaporization of E-Commerse, including the degradation of Amazon 3 years earlier before it happened. No one bought my words, until they saw EC websites disappeared one by one. There once was a media website called “明日報,” selling news online. Right after seeing its establishment, I had made a prediction that it must fail. Three years later, it closed. Did I look good on anything and it turns out to be good? Yes, micro-payment. We used to worked with CHT (中華電信) to build a website that collects your bill (phone, utility, adsl … blah) on “PDA,” called e-Kato. I told my boss, no one will use something like this, PDA is not as popular as cell phone, if you want to do micropayment, do it on cell phone. Unfortunately, no one listen to me. e-Kato died and some other ISP succeeded in micro-payment by integrating trivial billing into cell phone system.

Now I made three predictions about the events listed above.

Google will regret to buy YouTube because one day, they’ll encounter legal problems with media providers such as TV channels, movie producers, music industry …etc. and lose money on those lawsuits. Wretch is never a community website with high quality, its main users have suffered from the lack of security (confidentiality), low-speed connection (availability), and the growing amount of ads. Besides, I believe Yahoo Taiwan did not buy it for the community system, but for the data, I mean, photos. From this aspect of view, the builders of Wretch don’t deserve the whole income, the object of purchase should be photo providers: users. Did users earn anything from the 20 million NTD? the answer is : NO. What a group of people so lack of morality. Ye know what even worse? those disgraces earned money. They shall be damned. And my prediction about Wretch: as soon as Yahoo has integrated the photos into its community system, the original system shall disapper, except for its domain name.

The last is Windows Vista. I once said that Vista is not at all a complete OS in previous articles. It immitates Access Control mechanism from Linux, but has not learned the spirit. It tries to promotes hibernation to users but does not aware that users have been suffered from the “true dead” of windows hibernation. The Micro$oft empire won’t collapse for this little crap, they got whole lots of product lines to feed this stupid monster, not telling that this monster is still making money. They must not give up evolving Windows so that they can keep earning money by introducing newly invented craps to innocent consumers. Besides, anything that doesn’t improve itself won’t sell. Apparently Bill Gates knows this principle, he just got confused with the definition of “improve.”

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